Bankipur and Datia: A Clear Message to Modi and the BJP from the General Category

 

The BJP had barely recovered from the crisis of the dramatic and aggressive protests by opposition parties at Jantar Mantar when it came face to face with a reality that the party leadership had strictly ignored. The crushing defeats in the recent assembly by-elections for the Bankipur seat in Bihar and the Datia seat in Madhya Pradesh have forced the BJP to introspect. The question is whether the party is ready to face the truth that is the root cause of the collapse of these 'impregnable fortresses'? These defeats are not the result of ordinary or trivial reasons, but rather the manifestation of a deepening discontent.

The Fall of Impregnable Fortresses: A Failure of Leadership

The result of the Bankipur assembly seat in Bihar was a major test for the top BJP leadership in the state, in which the party failed miserably. Usually, the ruling party gets an edge in by-elections, but this did not happen in Bankipur. This is the seat that was represented for decades by the late Navin Kishore Sinha and later by his son (current BJP National President) Nitin Nabin. The seat, which had been with the BJP for 31 years, went to Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party in one fell swoop, and that too by a massive margin of over 19,000 votes.

The Bharat Tiwari murder case that took place on June 17, 2026, also played a major role in the BJP's defeat. It is an alleged fake encounter case carried out by the police in the Bhojpur district of Bihar, which not only raised serious questions about the law and order situation in the state but also highlighted the BJP's neglectful attitude towards Brahmins. 26-year-old Bharat Tiwari was an educated (B.Sc.) unemployed youth. He was not a professional criminal but was fighting for the rehabilitation and rights of flood victims displaced by the erosion of the Ganges River. The relatives and eyewitnesses of Bharat, who surrendered before the camera via Facebook Live, allege that the police fired indiscriminately and carried out a fake encounter. The police also started harassing the deceased Bharat's elderly father and his brother by registering an FIR against them under serious sections of illegal arms possession. Anti-Brahmin allegations continued to be leveled against the government, but the BJP did not even properly protest against it.

This defeat is also painful for the BJP because the in-charge of Bihar affairs is the party's former national president JP Nadda himself, and this region is also the Lok Sabha constituency of stalwart leader Ravi Shankar Prasad. The magic expected from the newly appointed leadership of the BJP (especially Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary), which had been dreaming of forming its government in Bihar for decades, fell flat. Samrat Choudhary took over as Bihar's first BJP Chief Minister only in April. In such a situation, the Bankipur election is also being seen as a silent referendum on his leadership. This result also makes it clear that the upper caste and urban voter, considered to be hardcore supporters of the party, is no longer ready to vote blindly. The kind of miracle Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam and Suvendu Adhikari in West Bengal did to strengthen the BJP with their political acumen was nowhere to be seen in Bihar.

On the other hand, the by-election for the Datia seat in Madhya Pradesh tells a story of the BJP's infighting and organizational failure. When a by-election was held on this seat, which had been Narottam Mishra's stronghold for 15 consecutive years, after the cancellation of the Congress MLA's membership, the BJP cut Mishra's ticket and fielded a new candidate. Under the leadership of Chief Minister Mohan Yadav, the BJP should have won this election at any cost, but the discontent of the workers and strategic blunders proved heavy.

The Root Cause: Neglect and Resentment of the General Category

Turning a blind eye to problems or looking down upon them does not solve them. The biggest factor stopping the BJP's victory chariot in Bankipur and Datia is—the growing resentment of the General Category.

This outrage stems from the crushing of the recent agitation by General Category students over the UGC guidelines and the central government's complete disregard for them. The protests by General Category students were strictly suppressed in BJP-ruled states. They were not even allowed to protest at Jantar Mantar, arguing that it would 'pollute the atmosphere'. In contrast, the Cockroach Janata Party was given a free hand to protest without any hindrance at the exact same location. Horrific anarchy ensued, leading to the resignation of Education Minister Dharmendra. But the obstinate silence of the then Education Minister in the UGC matter and the arrogant disregard of the Prime Minister disappointed that youth demographic, which selflessly stood as an ideological warrior for the BJP on social media and on the ground.

In addition to the UGC guidelines, the misuse of the SC/ST Act has also left this category bleeding. Studies have revealed that a large number of cases registered under this act have been found to be fake, but despite this, the lives of innocent people (General Category and the Brahmin community) are being ruined in litigations and jails.

"Today's Brahmin, Tomorrow's Dalit"

The economic condition of the General Category, especially the Brahmin community, has become worse than destitution today. The title of French journalist François Gautier's research is—"Today's Brahmin, Tomorrow's Dalit".

Gautier's report makes it clear that Brahmins are the new Dalits of today's India. More than 50% of rickshaw pullers and workers employed in public toilets (Sulabh Shauchalayas) in big cities of the country come from the Brahmin community. This is the same class that was historically the custodian of India's intellectual property, but 'anti-Brahmin' politics has pushed it into a quagmire of poverty.

Economic Plight: In Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and affluent households in big cities, 75% of cooks and over 50% of domestic workers belong to this community.
Exodus and Displacement: Fearing false cases in the villages of UP and Bihar, the youth of the General Category are forced to work as laborers in cities. The respected Pandits of the Kashmir Valley are refugees in their own country today, but assuming them to be a 'negligible vote bank', there is no one to care for them.

Despite all this, this community has not deviated from the spirit of 'Nation First'. But politics will have to understand that if the very foundation on which the building rests is weakened, the collapse of the roof is certain.

The Testimony of Data and the Warning for the Future

The en-masse voting of Brahmins in Uttar Pradesh brought Mayawati to power in 2007 and Akhilesh Yadav in 2012. Disappointed with both, this community joined the BJP with great hope and trust in 2017. But even after the formation of the government twice in a row in the state, this society did not get any solid policy relief other than the tokenism of a few ministerial posts.

The demographics of this category in the Hindi belt cannot be ignored, which is self-evident from these figures:

Uttar Pradesh: General Category 25-26% (Brahmins approx. 15%)
Madhya Pradesh: General Category 22-23% (Brahmins 6-7%)
Rajasthan: General Category 20-22% (Brahmins 8-9%)
Bihar: General Category 16-17% (Brahmins 7-8%)

Such a large population has the full potential to place any political party at the pinnacle of power or to oust it from there. The results of Bankipur and Datia are not surprising; the public, understanding the ground reality, had anticipated this beforehand. If the BJP could not foresee this, it is also its major failure.

A Danger Warning for the BJP

The BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi must understand that elections cannot be won merely by the slogan of 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, and Sabka Vishwas', appeasing the Muslim, backward, and Dalit communities, and relying on the strategy of showing the dream of a developed India. Like other parties, it will have to bear the brunt of the caste exploitation of the Hindu society.

The resentment of workers is harmful to all political parties, but it is fatal for a cadre-based party like the BJP. The message from Datia is that elections are not won merely by the orders of the high command, but by the enthusiasm of the grassroots workers. Ignoring local satraps harms the party itself.

The assembly elections in UP, West Bengal, Assam, Bihar, and Delhi have given a clear message to all political parties that elections cannot be won solely on the crutches of Muslim appeasement. Meanwhile, the by-elections of Bankipur and Datia have given a serious warning to the BJP that elections cannot be won by ignoring and insulting the General Category either. If the core voter (General Category) continues to be neglected under the misconception of "Where else will they go?", the result will be suicidal. If the BJP does not take corrective steps in time, this spark from Bankipur and Datia could take the form of a massive political wildfire in the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and in other states.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shiv Mishra ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~