Saturday, February 15, 2020

Shaheen Bagh - A well planned strategy for Delhi Election

Shaheen Bagh played a very important role in Delhi Assembly elections for all the political parties. Shaheen Bagh is the prime reason for fabulous victory of Aam Aadmi Party which ensured not only defeat of BJP but also making Congress as irrelevant forever.
Let us discuss in detail.
The biggest lie of Shaheen Bagh
Apparently Shaheen Bagh appears to be a place of demonstration against Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) but reportedly it was part of a larger conspiracy against BJP to ensure victory of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and also to make BJP busy in National issues and the challenge of CAA across India especially around National Capital Region (NCR) covering entire Delhi which was the battle ground for these elections.
The strategies and formula already tested in WB were used to connect Jamia, JNU and AMU. The planning was done in such a professional manner that it was giving signals of win-win situation to Congress for harvesting Muslim votes who deployed its firebrand leaders like Mani Shankar Aiyar, Shashi Tharoor, Digvijay Singh, Salman Khurshid etc. who delivered poisonous speeches to polarize Muslim votes in favour of Congress. Congress youth brigade led by Rahul and Priyanka were busy in travelling from Jamia to Jantar Mantar and from Shaheen Bagh to India Gate to galvanize Muslim votes. The duo also traveled to different parts of UP to capitalize the protest of CAA in favour of the Congress especially to give immediate benefit in Delhi Elections. The support of many Bollywood personalities was solicited and wherever possible their tours were arranged. Now days Bollywood can visit anywhere to promote their movies. Many Bollywood stars now attend any marriage reception ceremony on payments. The BJP too, was confronting the issues of Jamia, JNU and AMU. They realized much later that it is a part of conspiracy but by that time damage was already done.
Outlines of Shaheen Bagh plan were prepared by none other than Prashant Kumar (PK) who was Election Strategist of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. His firm I PAC was engaged by Aam Aadmi Party for Delhi elections. The entire plan was administrated from the War Room of Aam Aadmi Party located in Firoz Shah Kotla road in Delhi. The Congress remain in daydream that it is going to benefit to large extent by the polarization of Muslim votes in Delhi. Probably it is for the first time in the history of Indian elections that Muslim votes were polarized successfully stopping Hindu polarization as reaction thereof. This is a very innovative experiment done in the laboratory of Shaheen Bagh. Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi was right when he mentioned that Shaheen Bagh is not coincidence, it is an experiment.
( Hate speeches at Shaheen Bagh : Sharzeel Imam)
It is now on record that all Muslim candidates of Aam Aadmi Party won their respective seats by record margins. The votes polled to these Muslim candidates are up to the extent of 76% of the total polled votes which underlines the fact that while Muslim polarization was a grand success, Hindu polarization was not evident. Its candidate from Matia Mahal Shoaib Iqbal got 75.96% votes as against BJP candidate who got only 19.24 % votes. A difference of 59.58 % could not have happened, had the Muslim vote not polarize or even otherwise also had the Hindu vote also polarized. Casting 76% votes to a single candidate is itself a record. One of the Muslim candidates in Delhi Assembly elections won his seat by a record margin of 71000 votes as against Manish Sisodia who has reportedly carried out a revolution in the education system of Delhi, suffered a narrow scape and could won by merely 2000 votes. Arvind Kejriwal the icon of AAP and a man of freebies of Delhi could won by 21000 votes. Amanullah Khan, one of the candidates of AAP from Okhla seat of Delhi where Shaheen Bagh is located has given hate speech not once, not twice but many times at Shaheen Bagh and elsewhere in Delhi, won by huge margin, more than the margin of Arvind Kejriwal. What these statistics says?
There are many other things which suggest that Shaheen Bagh has contributed to large extent in the victory of Aam Aadmi Party and the victory of AAP has resulted into happy ending of Shaheen Bagh protest. Just after the results, there were celebrations and protesters were greeted and biryani was distributed.
AAP, a Party which took birth as a byproduct of Anna agitation - the India against corruption, exploited the loop holes of the constitution and the democracy, disturbed the equilibrium of the society, ignoring the core values of the country, using freebies as weapon, orchestrated the episodes and exploited the difficult situation of the country in their favour.
Such innovative and adventurous experiments were never done even by the Congress who had been using the services of many foreign agencies for making election and poll strategies. The current experiment at Shaheen Bagh has opened Pandora's box.
The background of Shaheen Bagh
As you are aware, Prashant Kishor was earlier associated with Bhartiya Janata Party up to Lok Sabha elections in 2014 when BJP received huge victory resulting into formation of Narendra Modi Government the first majority government at the Centre after almost 30 years. It was time when Prashant Kishor desired to enter politics by having senior post in the BJP and expressed his earnest desire to Shri Amit Shah. BJP is a cadre-based party and President, Prime Minister, Vice President, Lok Sabha Speaker, Chief Ministers, many Governors and many Cabinet Ministers have come from rank and files of the party. Lateral recruitments do happen in BJP now a days, however, party does not appoint any lateral recruited leader in party posts. BJP can give tickets for Lok Sabha and Assembly elections and can nominate for Rajya Sabha and Vidhan Parishad but not give party positions due to obvious reason. Thus, Prashant Kishor could not be accommodated. However, later the recommendation of Amit Shah, he was not only admitted in JDU but also appointed as its’ Vice President. Although PK belong to Bihar, but did this not benefit him to the desired extent. He, therefore, continued his work as election strategist for many political parties .His recent contract with Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal raised eyebrows of many in BJP. PK helped Mamata Banerjee in Lok Sabha polls at the cost of irritating the BJP. However, despite his best efforts, BJP dented Mamata Banerji and penetrated in West Bengal by winning 18 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats. In assembly elections in West Bengal Prashant Kishor has been trying hard to ensure victory of Mamata Banerjee and working on many strategies. One of his strategies in West Bengal is to intensify protest CAA and create fear psychosis against NRC. As per his advice Mamata Banerjee is already on the roads leaving no stone unturned to embarrass BJP and corner Narendra Modi. This resulted into very poor relationship between PK and BJP. When Prashant Kishor himself opposed CAA as against the stand taken by his party JDU, he invited anguish from both BJP and JDU. It is said that Amit Shah who was instrumental for his entry into JDU was again instrumental for his expulsion. He has been helping Arvind Kejriwal in Delhi Assembly elections as poll and election strategist through his firm I PAC. In Delhi, the protests in JNU and Jamia were well planned and looped with Sheen Bagh. The selection of Shaheen Bagh spot for protest CAA and connecting it with nationalism was a well thought strategy of Shri Prashant Kishor. Using National Flag and singing National Anthem was a patriotic Tadka. Of course all emotional and sympathy cards were used by including children and old age women.
In last Lok Sabha elections BJP won all 7 seats of Delhi and the remarkable thing was that Muslim women gave overwhelming support to Narendra Modi ( Modi Bhai Jan) as a gift of removal of triple talaq and Halala. This had fragmented Muslim Votes and men were against BJP, but the women were in support of BJP. With a view to distancing Muslim Women from Modi Bhai Jan, they made the face of demonstration against CAA at Shaheen Bagh which has sizable Muslim population which will make it easy for women to join the protests while remain connected with their home. Thus, the idea of Shaheen Bagh was to reunite the Muslim votes and cast them in bulk in favour of AAP. Indirectly AAP and especially its Muslim leaders funded the protests at Shaheen Bagh. Excellent arrangements are made for protesters at Shaheen Bagh in order to motivate them to stay for a long. It is evident that many protesters are from lower income group and daily wage earners who are reportedly paid suitably. Few English-speaking women in Burka are also available to speak to media if required. In order to ensure originality of the protests as per script, there is well managed and controlled system behind these women.
After victory of the AAP, “Mission Shaheen Bagh” is accomplished and gradually the sponsors and organizers are distancing themselves from Shaheen Bagh. Naturally after supply chain becomes dysfunctional, the protestors cannot stay, and the protest will also become dysfunctional. JNU, Jamia and AMU also performed well in their given roles for the cause, and now will become silent at least for some time on the one or the other grounds.
The AAP is happy on their victory which is very natural, and the Congress is happy on the defeat of BJP. Everybody in congress Sonia, Priyanka and Rahul are happy that they have stopped BJP coming to power. They do not know that what congress did in Delhi is suicidal and people of Delhi has bid the farewell to congress for ever. The role of congress in Delhi clearly underlines the fact that Congress itself is fulfilling the dream of PM Modi for “Congress Mukt Bharat”. A layman could understand that Congress can win election only in direct fight with BJP as happened in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, however, if it supports a third party to win over the BJP, it can never recapitulate the lost glory as happened in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, WB, Maharashtra, AP, Telangana, Tamilnadu, Odisha etc.
The BJP has been out of power in Delhi state for the last 25 years, but the Congress was in power for 15 years just before AAP government came in. while the BJP has been able to get 5 more seats in direct fight in all the seats and increase vote share to 38%, Congress got vote less than 4% this time and was nowhere at number two.
The congress, in the entire episodes of CAA and Shaheen Bagh appears a biggest loser as it was working on simple appeasement politics which did not work against the well scripted, directed and narrated orchestration. Obviously, the Congress could not get Muslim votes. Its performance was too poor to get less than 4%, which lowest in the history of Congress. It not only failed to get any seat for the second consecutive assembly elections but also its 63 candidates, out of 66 lost their deposits. The data says that almost entire anti BJP votes have been garnered by AAP leaving congress for a guest appearance.
The BJP despite patriotic wave in their favour could not succeed to capture the power. However, their vote percentage increased by 6% to touch 38% as compared to last election. One peculiar statistic says that if the congress would have fought properly and would have secured roughly 20 % votes, the BJP would have been the winner. This is supported by the fact that the average votes of AAP and Congress is less than what BJP has got. The high vote percentage of AAP(56%) is indicative that it has eaten the Vote Bank of Congress. The logic is simple the loss of the congress is the gain of AAP.
The script writer, producer, director and all the artists of Shaheen Bagh deserve Hats off, if not from us, from all political leaders.
****************ShiveMishra********************
Footnotes

Sunday, February 9, 2020

CAA and NRC : Impact Analysis


CAA, NPR & NRC : The Background

The citizen Amendment Act is much awaited law which was expected immediately after Nehru Liaquat agreement in 1950.However, due to political appeasement of the Congress starting from Nehru, the law could not be prepared.  The need of such law was felt on the backdrop of communal violence after partition of India which resulted into genocide of more than one million non-Muslims community  in  east and west Pakistan while they were returning to India. Many independent historians had written that  trains coming from Pakistan to India were flooded with dead bodies of Hindus and other non-Muslim communities. The partition of India was based on the two Nation theory, one for Hindus and other for Muslims. Jinnah took  the Pakistan for Muslims and chosen the area where Muslim population was much in concentration at two places one was known as East Pakistan and the other was known as West Pakistan. The population of both communities were to be exchanged to the respective Nation. While Pakistan at both places  pressurized Migration of Hindus and Non-Muslims from East and West Pakistan, Jawaharlal Nehru appealed that Muslims who want to live in India can live safely and there will not be any injustice to them ang Government will provide safety and security. While  the Congress took a lot of initiative to make the Muslims happy in India, the treatment to Hindus   in Pakistan  was beyond the imagination and was worse than Hell. Following the largest genocide of Hindus on the planet in Pakistan  by Muslims to finish the Hindus and to capture their properties and women. A meeting between the prime ministers of both the countries happened and  an agreement was done which is known as Nehru and Liaquat Agreement. The agreement says that both countries will protect the interest of minorities in their countries and ensure their safety and security. Things in Pakistan did not change.  Pakistan kept pressure on non-Muslims to either leave or convert to Islam. Pak allowed adult Hindus migrating from Pakistan to India to take with them only rupees 150  leaving all the assets and belongings in Pakistan . While in  India Congress tried its best to appease the Muslims in whatever  ways possible,   the lives of Hindus in Pakistan worsened. While crossing the Pakistan borders to reach in India many Hindus were killed, a few of them survived and reached India in order to save their lives. The then government of Congress led by Mr. Jawaharlal Nehru gave assurance that citizenship Act will be suitably amended to grant the citizens to all such people who are religiously persecuted in Pakistan and Afghanistan which  was not done by any of the subsequent governments.

The inhuman conditions of  Refugees

The life of these migrants Hindus and other minority communities from the neighboring countries (Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan) which were turned into Islamic countries,  are miserable  and inhuman in India also, for decades. Can anyone think that they are from India (undivided India ) and they are living miserable life in India? What is their fault ? Is this punishment of partition of India ? Why will they alone  face the sin of the partition for which Jinnah and Nehru was responsible? They have the status of Refugees. They  do not have Ration Cards, education to children, own house,  no benefit of Governments schemes and no regular employment. They  are not having voting rights, rights of education and proper employment and their life in India is also not befitting and comparable with ordinary Indian Citizen or even normal human being.

All the governments and all the prominent leaders after independence, expressed concerns and promised to grant them citizenship. However, no Government could dare to enact the law in India  in this regard. It is  only Modi who made it possible. Modi Hai to mumkin hai (मोदी है तो मुमकिन है). They introduced the CAB in parliament and ensured that it is passed despite the fact  that the BJP does not enjoy majority in Rajya Sabha. The Citizens Amendment Bill (CAB) is now Law  “The Citizen Amendment Act 2019 (CAA)”.

What is CAA ?

Before discussing further, we need to understand the CAA.

The Citizenship Amendment Act, 2019 (CAA) was passed by the Parliament of India on 11 December 2019. It amended the Citizenship Act of 1955 by providing a path to Indian citizenship for Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi, and Christian religious minorities who migrated from Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan. By amending the principal act i.e. Citizenship Act, 1955, a proviso has been inserted in section 2, in sub-section (1), in clause (b), that provides as such-”Provided that any person belonging to Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi or Christian community from Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Pakistan, who entered into India on or before the 31st day of December, 2014 and who has been exempted by the Central Government by or under clause (c) of sub-section (2) of section 3 of the Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920 or from the application of the provisions of the Foreigners Act, 1946 or any rule or order made there under, shall not be treated as illegal migrant for the purposes of this Act.”

Under the 2019 amendment, migrants who had entered India by 31 December 2014, and had suffered “religious persecution or fear of religious persecution” in their country of origin were made eligible for citizenship. Most surprisingly such “religious persecution or fear of religious persecution ” has not been inscribed in the present amended Act, though the Government of India by means of executing rules and orders under Passport (Entry into India) rules, 1950 and Foreigners Order, 1948 respectively initiated the process of giving a particular privilege to those people four years before, who belong to those religion and countries, that have been mentioned in the above stated section 2(1)(b) of the Citizenship Act 1955. The Government of India has amended the Passport (Entry into India) Rules, 1950 and the Foreigners’ Order 1948 through a notification on September 7, 2015 by exempting persons belonging to minority community in Bangladesh ,Pakistan or Afghanistan who have been compelled to seek shelter in India due to religious persecution or fear of religious persecution and entered into India on or before December 31, 2014.
What is NRC?

The National Register of Citizens (NRC) is a register maintained by the Government of India containing names & certain relevant information for identification of Indian citizens. The NRC is an exercise that requires individuals in India to prove they are citizens of India. Thus, it will help the Government to identify non-citizens especially illegal immigrants in order to push them out of country.

The NRC was initially, specifically made for Assam state. The NRC results in Assam, however, were not satisfactory and therefore the Government has decided to relook into the process.

 What are the reasons for opposing Citizen Amendment Act (CAA)?

o   The strong opposition of CAA came from Muslims in India who are privileged citizen in India more than the Hindus supported by opposition parties who are exploiting their votes in bulk after independence.
o   These political parties, many of whom exist because of the votes of minorities, do not want to let this vote Bank go out of their hands.
o   In fact, if Muslims are included in CAA, all illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan and Rohingyas from Myanmar will become citizens of this country and will become the solid Vote Bank of   these political parties. That is why these political parties are protesting more than the Muslims and investing heavily at the cost of law and order and  even division of the society.
o   Do the Muslims and all those who oppose CAA, expect  these Non- Muslims / Minority communities to convert to Islam in their Islamic countries which are meant for Muslims only ?
o   Should they (Non-Muslims of Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan) face persecution and die in their Islamic Countries?
o   Do they ( Muslims and all those who oppose CAA) expect further appeasement of Indian Muslims to allow all illegal Muslims immigrants from these countries who have infiltrated in India for better life owing to better social & economic conditions and employment opportunities in India as compared to these Islamic countries? A rational distinction need be made between Hindus and Sikhs and other minorities seeking their future in India, because they have nowhere else to go, and Muslims from Islamic countries who do have alternative options. Muslim illegal immigrants are serious threat to demography of India which is going in favor of Muslims in India as compared to neighboring countries which ultimately turned to Islamic countries under the pressure of Muslim fundamentalists.  



The Positive Impacts  CAA and NRC

Those who are analyzing, discussing, dissecting and speaking about CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act) are not correctly spelling out the  highlight the overwhelming benefits of CAA. A few could be as under -
o   The Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) has been duly passed by the Parliament after a thorough debate in both Houses. It is the product of a fully democratic exercise.
o   The refugees of minority communities of Pakistan, Bangladesh and Afghanistan  who were religiously persecuted in their countries and who have crossed over to India before 31st December 2014  to save their lives  will get the citizenship in fast track mode.
o   The population of India will have now only citizens and non-citizens.
o   Non-Citizens too will be divisible into legal immigrants and illegal immigrants.
o   The illegal immigrants will be easily identified and pushed out of country.   
o   The people who will get the citizenship will benefit the  Society in general and country in particular. They will be loyal to this country where they got the shelter that is their own.  
o   It will give the message to all the illegal immigrants that India is not ready to accommodate them anymore and since they are unwanted, they should leave the country or face the legal consequences.
  • o   The most important thing is that the  CAA will  fast-tracking the acquisition of Indian citizenship by Hindus and Sikhs and others, regulating their status in India and extending all the benefits of citizenship to them.
  • o   Illegal Muslim migrants will be easily  identified and send back to their country of origin without fear of religious discrimination and physical insecurity, or some other interim solution can be found, once they are properly identified.
  • o   The CAA gives  immunity to refugees from persecution for being an illegal migrant and gives fast  track  citizenship .
  • o   The test for granting citizenship is very simple based on  three conditions,

o   Firstly, that refugee  must be from Pakistan, Afghanistan or Bangladesh.
o   Secondly, refugee must be one of the  from six religious’ communities — Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis.
o   thirdly  refugee should have crossed over to  India before December 31, 2014.
o   The CAA will  protect only  those who are already in India.
o   The patriot Indian can now see distinctly as to who are working for India to survive and live long as it is and who are working for appeasement not bothering that the change in the demography of India will create turmoil in the country and will lead for conversion into an Islamic country like Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many if African continent. It may not be taken out of context that lives of even Muslims are miserable in these Islamic countries because of fundamentalism and that is why they are fleeing for better life in India.
  • o   At the national level CAA and other related matters has given a lease of life to the opposition parties. After Modi became PM, the opposition parties became almost irrelevant and insignificant.
  • o   It has created awareness and  a thrilling academic atmosphere in the country.  people have started reading the Constitution of India, and relevant provisions and Act.  
  • o   The overall impact of CAA is very good keeping in view it’s academic discussions. Almost all the Indians are now curious to know the effect, the provisions of constitution and of course the Vote Bank Politics.
  • o   The sale of the copies of the amended Citizenship Act 1955 (bare act), the Foreigners Act,1946, the Constitution of India has touched all-time high. The search of related content on the net is at its peak.
  • o   Many people have started reading constitution and hoisting the flag.
  • o   Many protesters have started reciting national Anthem during protests.
  • o   Many schools / offices have started reading preamble of constitution.
  • o   Those who never bothered about the constitution and /or flouted the constitution are protesting to save the constitution.

  • o   The importance of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) is integral for India. It provides a clear-cut demarcation of who qualifies to be an Indian citizen from other nationals who have been illegally living in India. The role of the NRC has proven to be very helpful in several instances. In the State of Assam where a large number of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh are known to inhabit, it is with the aid of the NRC that their inhabitation will have to be forfeited. Therefore, all the states in India employ the use of an NRC which gets updated in every ten years.

o   With our evidently growing economy, it is important to have a clear picture of the exact number of citizens and foreign nationals living in the country and whether this inhabitation is legal or illegal. This also comes into play when we talk about exercising other rights awarded to Indian citizens. With an avid population, if one is to ensure a rapid growth, we need to eliminate the chances of any such rights getting exploited. These are scenarios where the NRC deems to be of critical importance to safeguard growth and development.
o   Established democracies have a detailed database of citizens, with citizenship verification through several means, including national identity cards. This is a vital aspect of sovereignty, national security and governance. Why does the move to establish an NRC abridge India’s democracy in particular? With our porous borders, terrorism concerns and the reality of illegal migration, India desperately needs a National Register for Citizens.
o   The irony is that with similar social conditions — the absence of birth certificates, poverty and illiteracy — Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal have citizenship rolls. If they can find out the ways, we too can find out the ways.
o   Over the course of the last decade, there has been a rampant inflow of Rohingya Muslims with an estimated forty thousand residing illegally. There have been plans for their deportation as there have been instances of militant attacks on the border by the group individuals. These groups are also known to have links with Pakistan based terror groups. The inhabitation of this sect can thus pose a serious threat to national security which has already been seen in instances like the border attacks.

Negative Impact of CAA and NRC
o   Because of protests, the Nationwide NRC may not be approved in the Rajya Sabha with even BJP allies JD(U) and the Akalis opposing it on account of political turmoil.
o   The NRC is designed to weaponize the CAA. Without the NRC, the CAA will not have desired impact which is under fire by a section of society.
o   The Opposition parties ignoring national interest, has started playing the dangerous game of mobilizing Muslims to stage street protests with violence  to capitalize on and deepen the existing perception that the Modi-led BJP government is anti-Muslim. This is nothing but to gain the lost political ground.
o   The violent protests are  disturbing the peace and harmony of the country. The violent protest across some state has damaged huge properties of Central and state Governments , which is a national loss.
o   Owing to Vote Bank politics through Muslim Appeasement, many State Governments belonging to opposition parties have passed a resolution against CAA which is giving wrong signals to the world at large about the unity and integrity of India.
o   Many State Government have declared that they will not implement the CAA, knowing fully well that the citizenship is a union issue and states has nothing to do with it. The citizenship is granted by Central Government and States have no role to play. As per the provisions of constitution  the  State Governments can not say no to any law passed by the parliament. The message though politically motivated is giving wrong signals to the  whole world.
o   The ‘secular’ argument has been carried to an absurd length in demanding that even persecuted Muslims in Islamic countries such as Shias,  Ahmadis and Rohingyas should be included for Indian citizenship. If that is done the very purpose of the CAA and NRC will be lost and India may not remain secular for more than 20 – 25 years and will convert to an Islamic country. May be, before that civil war erupts or Islamic terror war groups like ISIS , Taliban etc.  are developed to finish the non-Islamic or force them to convert  to Islam in order to establish an Islamic Rule. The so-called secular will then be first to flee out of country.
o   Fundamentalists in India are demanding even to include  Yazidis and other victims of the Islamic State, the victims of Boko Haram from North Africa to prove our secular credentials?
o   The protesters and opposition parties are demanding to include Shias & Ahmadis of Pakistan and Rohingyas of Myanmar who have known terror link, and  which are serious threat to country’s security and demography .
o   Opposition parties because of vote Bank politics, support to grant  citizenship to the several million Bangladeshi Muslims who have entered India illegally.
o   Those protesting the CAA in the name of secularism and democracy do not want Hindus, Sikhs and others to benefit from CAA, even if for one time unless the Muslims are also accommodated. The demand is not logical as the Muslims cannot be persecuted in Islamic countries. If the Muslims are accommodated in CAA the demography of country will change as there are more than 2 Crores illegal Muslims from Pakistan and Bangladesh many of them have terrorist links. All of them are drain to Indian resources creating the problems of employment, infrastructure, law & order  and security.
o   The demography of India will tilt towards Muslims who will try to convert the Hindustan into an Islamic country as happened in case of Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and many African countries. Recently German Chancellor has expressed concerns over possible threat to Germany  for being converted to Islamic country in few years from now.
o   The NRC will be an enormous exercise given the size of our population and other complexities. This was evident in Assam, where even genuine Indian citizens got excluded and many illegal migrants allegedly, got included. Before the government embarks on this exercise, it also needs to put in place a policy on stateless people. India does not have one yet and keeping illegal migrants in detention centres is something the country can ill afford.
o   The opposition political parties do not understand that this is important  to keep within the lines of the law when it comes to illegal immigration and national interest.
o   The unwanted protest and support by opposition political parties have encouraged  Rohingya Muslims illegal infiltration  into India. Keeping national peace and safety in concern it is best that any such form of illegal infiltrations is  stopped forthwith, and strict laws should be framed in this regard.



                               ***********************
                                             - Shive Mishra 
                           ****************************

Thursday, December 12, 2019

India would move to Chain Base GDP

The Government of India is exploring to switch over to a new and progressive methodology to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The new methodology may be chain base system in place of existing fixed base system.

THE FIX BASE SYSTEM
This method is in vogue in India. In this method weight assignment to various economic activities and goods remain fix for specific period which can range from 5 to 10 years or a period as decided by the government. This helps comparing the trend of growth over 5 -10 years on the same parameters with the same weight assigned. 

THE CHAIN BASE SYSTEM 
In this system the weight assigned index keeps on changing and changes are incorporated annually. Thus the structural changes of the economy are adjusted quickly. Also the activities are updated and captured annually. This method appears more correct as the economic activities are updated and captured every year based on the current prices.
In many foreign countries chain base system is being used.  US shifted to the chain base weighted index in 1996 and many EU countries have also moved to this system. If India moves on to this system, it will be easy and realistic to compare the economic indicators with these countries.

THE CHALLENGES IN INDIA
Moving from existing fixed base to chain base system in India is challenging because of   delayed availability of data which normally comes with the lag of 2 years. However, with the speed of digitisation and automation is taking place in India, switching to chain base system is not very difficult.
 The indicators computed under chain weighted index system are closer to nominal number which being calculated on current prices, are more realistic as compared to real number which are inflation adjusted. 

KNOW THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
Now days GDP numbers are in discussions because of economic slowdown and therefor you must know broadly what the GDP is?
“The GDP of a country is sum total of values of goods and services produced in any given year”. The formulae is 
 GDP = Private consumption + Gross investment + Government spending + (Export – Import)

In India the GDP is calculated by Central Statistical Office (CSO) by 2 methods -
1. At  factor cost basis 
Under this category economic activities RSS at factor cost basis and performance of eight different industries are assessed which are
I. agriculture forestry and fisheries
II. Mining and quarrying 
III. Manufacture
IV. Electricity gas and water supply
V. Construction 
VI. Trade, Hotels, transport and communication
VII. Financing, Insurance real estate and business services
VIII. Community personal and social services

2. At  Expenditure at market price basis
The economic activities assessed at market prices which indicates how different areas of the economy such as trade, investment, personal consumption are doing.

Nominal GDP - it is calculated on current market prices
Real GDP - it is calculated adjusting inflation
                                                ******************
                                                   -     Shive Mishra 










Monday, December 9, 2019

Direct Tax Code (DTC): Income Tax Rationalisation on the Way



The government recently announced tax rate cut for corporates across the board.  This has been done in the backdrop of slowdown in the economy to support the corporates and to attract new investments which are moving towards other emerging economy like Vietnam. This cut is historical in last 28 years. The measure is in line with the recommendations of the much-awaited Direct Tax Code (DTC) report that was submitted to the Finance Ministry in August 2019. The report has not been made public yet.
(The Direct Tax Code aims to consolidate and amend the law relating to all direct taxes, namely, income-tax, dividend distribution tax, fringe benefit tax and wealth-tax to establish an economically efficient, effective and equitable direct tax system which will facilitate voluntary compliance and help increase the tax-GDP ratio. Another objective is to reduce the scope for disputes and minimize litigation. All the direct taxes have been brought under a single Code and compliance procedures unified.)
After slash in corporate tax there was hope that individual tax rate will also be reduced to increase the consumption. Arvind Panagariya former NITI Ayog Chairman said that there is a strong case for a similar reform in income tax also. As per reliable sources, the DTC report has also recommended the lowering of tax rates for individual tax payers. After corporate tax now it the turn of individual taxes. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman talking on the Indian economy, said that the government is working on more steps, including rationalisation of personal income tax rates, to revive the sagging economy. This may however now be taken care of in the coming budget.
Income tax slabs need to be rationalised
The DTC has suggested the rationalisation of slabs with a rate of 5 per cent for incomes of Rs 2.5 lakh to Rs 5 lakh, 10 per cent for those earning Rs 5 lakh to Rs 10 lakh, 20 per cent for Rs 10 lakh to Rs 20 lakh, 30 per cent from Rs 20 lakh to Rs 2 crore and 35 per cent for those with incomes above Rs 2 crore. If this is done this would create surplus in the hands of tax payers and help in boosting consumption and increasing household savings in different financial investments and Government scheme. Another possibility is to sub-categorise two income groups, to slice the 30% income tax slab.
Similarly, for deductions, the exemption limit can easily be raised up to Rs 4 lakh or Rs 4.5 lakh say, with higher limits on PPF, LIC, NSC under Section 80(c)) primarily to boost financial savings for households, which have otherwise been declining over the last few years. Low household savings with the financial sector adversely affects the financial institution’s ability to exercise better credit creation powers and boost investment sourced from domestic means.
Also, looking at the rise in personal cost of living  a higher exemption limit may help boost long term savings towards retirement or increase investments in private pension funds. The slab rates proposed above would rationalise the present ones and do away with surcharges. A rationalisation of the slabs, especially for taxpayers earning below Rs 50 lakh would lower their overall tax incidence to around 25 per cent, like that of corporates. This would leave more funds for households to spend and save.
The Government should also provide special exemption / relief to senior citizen and very senior citizens to enable them to spend more on the health care and increased medical requirement.  

House hold savings need to be encouraged
For a long government has not increased the limit for savings or exemption of investment to save the Income tax. The existing limit of rupees 1.5 lacs includes contribution to pf investment in PPF entry requirement towards housing loan etc. This limit is inadequate keeping in view quantum of housing loan and repayment. The government should therefore, consider the introduction of saving schemes with attractive interest rates and channelize such mobilised funds for investment in specific sectors. A deduction can be introduced for investment in long-term infrastructure bonds like those issued earlier under section 80CCF.  Inclusion of debt mutual funds would boost investments in government the above measures would help channelize a portion of the tax savings back into the economy.
Participation in equity market to be made attractive

A comprehensive review of the long-term capital gains is required. There are different periods of holding of different types of asset for qualification as a long-term asset. Property is only required to be held for two years to qualify as a long-term asset and to avail the benefits of capital gains exemption. Equity shares must be held for one year.
Processing of income tax returns and assessment

In recent years there visible improvements in Income Tax Department in processing of income tax return which has become fast and corruption free to a large extent owing to centralised processing system. There is further, scope of improvement in processing time and in making refunds. The simplification of income tax return formats has also helped individuals to file their return in their own. The government has initiated steps towards faceless e-assessment. The government has launched the e-assessment scheme on September 12, 2019 to put in place a structure to facilitate e-assessment proceedings. A ‘National e-assessment centre’ would be set up in Delhi to conduct e-assessment proceedings in a centralised manner. All notices would be issued, and information requests made by the ‘National e-assessment centre. The scheme is a major step in improving the image and relations between the taxpayer and the income tax department. A technology-driven approach would facilitate compliance, tax collections and curb high-pitched assessments.

Dividend taxation to revamped 

There huge anomaly in the present system of dividend income. The present income tax law imposes a dividend distribution tax (DDT) at the corporate level. The dividends in the hands of the investors in excess of Rs 10 Lakh are taxed at 10 per cent in the hands of the share holders.  Additionally, the profits of the corporates, out of which the dividends are paid are subject to a corporate tax consequently dividends are taxed thrice.
While Government should expand the base of tax payers, the tax should be progressive, contributory and bearable.
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                                                          - Shive Mishra