Thursday, December 12, 2019

India would move to Chain Base GDP

The Government of India is exploring to switch over to a new and progressive methodology to calculate Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The new methodology may be chain base system in place of existing fixed base system.

THE FIX BASE SYSTEM
This method is in vogue in India. In this method weight assignment to various economic activities and goods remain fix for specific period which can range from 5 to 10 years or a period as decided by the government. This helps comparing the trend of growth over 5 -10 years on the same parameters with the same weight assigned. 

THE CHAIN BASE SYSTEM 
In this system the weight assigned index keeps on changing and changes are incorporated annually. Thus the structural changes of the economy are adjusted quickly. Also the activities are updated and captured annually. This method appears more correct as the economic activities are updated and captured every year based on the current prices.
In many foreign countries chain base system is being used.  US shifted to the chain base weighted index in 1996 and many EU countries have also moved to this system. If India moves on to this system, it will be easy and realistic to compare the economic indicators with these countries.

THE CHALLENGES IN INDIA
Moving from existing fixed base to chain base system in India is challenging because of   delayed availability of data which normally comes with the lag of 2 years. However, with the speed of digitisation and automation is taking place in India, switching to chain base system is not very difficult.
 The indicators computed under chain weighted index system are closer to nominal number which being calculated on current prices, are more realistic as compared to real number which are inflation adjusted. 

KNOW THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
Now days GDP numbers are in discussions because of economic slowdown and therefor you must know broadly what the GDP is?
“The GDP of a country is sum total of values of goods and services produced in any given year”. The formulae is 
 GDP = Private consumption + Gross investment + Government spending + (Export – Import)

In India the GDP is calculated by Central Statistical Office (CSO) by 2 methods -
1. At  factor cost basis 
Under this category economic activities RSS at factor cost basis and performance of eight different industries are assessed which are
I. agriculture forestry and fisheries
II. Mining and quarrying 
III. Manufacture
IV. Electricity gas and water supply
V. Construction 
VI. Trade, Hotels, transport and communication
VII. Financing, Insurance real estate and business services
VIII. Community personal and social services

2. At  Expenditure at market price basis
The economic activities assessed at market prices which indicates how different areas of the economy such as trade, investment, personal consumption are doing.

Nominal GDP - it is calculated on current market prices
Real GDP - it is calculated adjusting inflation
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                                                   -     Shive Mishra 










Monday, December 9, 2019

Direct Tax Code (DTC): Income Tax Rationalisation on the Way



The government recently announced tax rate cut for corporates across the board.  This has been done in the backdrop of slowdown in the economy to support the corporates and to attract new investments which are moving towards other emerging economy like Vietnam. This cut is historical in last 28 years. The measure is in line with the recommendations of the much-awaited Direct Tax Code (DTC) report that was submitted to the Finance Ministry in August 2019. The report has not been made public yet.
(The Direct Tax Code aims to consolidate and amend the law relating to all direct taxes, namely, income-tax, dividend distribution tax, fringe benefit tax and wealth-tax to establish an economically efficient, effective and equitable direct tax system which will facilitate voluntary compliance and help increase the tax-GDP ratio. Another objective is to reduce the scope for disputes and minimize litigation. All the direct taxes have been brought under a single Code and compliance procedures unified.)
After slash in corporate tax there was hope that individual tax rate will also be reduced to increase the consumption. Arvind Panagariya former NITI Ayog Chairman said that there is a strong case for a similar reform in income tax also. As per reliable sources, the DTC report has also recommended the lowering of tax rates for individual tax payers. After corporate tax now it the turn of individual taxes. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman talking on the Indian economy, said that the government is working on more steps, including rationalisation of personal income tax rates, to revive the sagging economy. This may however now be taken care of in the coming budget.
Income tax slabs need to be rationalised
The DTC has suggested the rationalisation of slabs with a rate of 5 per cent for incomes of Rs 2.5 lakh to Rs 5 lakh, 10 per cent for those earning Rs 5 lakh to Rs 10 lakh, 20 per cent for Rs 10 lakh to Rs 20 lakh, 30 per cent from Rs 20 lakh to Rs 2 crore and 35 per cent for those with incomes above Rs 2 crore. If this is done this would create surplus in the hands of tax payers and help in boosting consumption and increasing household savings in different financial investments and Government scheme. Another possibility is to sub-categorise two income groups, to slice the 30% income tax slab.
Similarly, for deductions, the exemption limit can easily be raised up to Rs 4 lakh or Rs 4.5 lakh say, with higher limits on PPF, LIC, NSC under Section 80(c)) primarily to boost financial savings for households, which have otherwise been declining over the last few years. Low household savings with the financial sector adversely affects the financial institution’s ability to exercise better credit creation powers and boost investment sourced from domestic means.
Also, looking at the rise in personal cost of living  a higher exemption limit may help boost long term savings towards retirement or increase investments in private pension funds. The slab rates proposed above would rationalise the present ones and do away with surcharges. A rationalisation of the slabs, especially for taxpayers earning below Rs 50 lakh would lower their overall tax incidence to around 25 per cent, like that of corporates. This would leave more funds for households to spend and save.
The Government should also provide special exemption / relief to senior citizen and very senior citizens to enable them to spend more on the health care and increased medical requirement.  

House hold savings need to be encouraged
For a long government has not increased the limit for savings or exemption of investment to save the Income tax. The existing limit of rupees 1.5 lacs includes contribution to pf investment in PPF entry requirement towards housing loan etc. This limit is inadequate keeping in view quantum of housing loan and repayment. The government should therefore, consider the introduction of saving schemes with attractive interest rates and channelize such mobilised funds for investment in specific sectors. A deduction can be introduced for investment in long-term infrastructure bonds like those issued earlier under section 80CCF.  Inclusion of debt mutual funds would boost investments in government the above measures would help channelize a portion of the tax savings back into the economy.
Participation in equity market to be made attractive

A comprehensive review of the long-term capital gains is required. There are different periods of holding of different types of asset for qualification as a long-term asset. Property is only required to be held for two years to qualify as a long-term asset and to avail the benefits of capital gains exemption. Equity shares must be held for one year.
Processing of income tax returns and assessment

In recent years there visible improvements in Income Tax Department in processing of income tax return which has become fast and corruption free to a large extent owing to centralised processing system. There is further, scope of improvement in processing time and in making refunds. The simplification of income tax return formats has also helped individuals to file their return in their own. The government has initiated steps towards faceless e-assessment. The government has launched the e-assessment scheme on September 12, 2019 to put in place a structure to facilitate e-assessment proceedings. A ‘National e-assessment centre’ would be set up in Delhi to conduct e-assessment proceedings in a centralised manner. All notices would be issued, and information requests made by the ‘National e-assessment centre. The scheme is a major step in improving the image and relations between the taxpayer and the income tax department. A technology-driven approach would facilitate compliance, tax collections and curb high-pitched assessments.

Dividend taxation to revamped 

There huge anomaly in the present system of dividend income. The present income tax law imposes a dividend distribution tax (DDT) at the corporate level. The dividends in the hands of the investors in excess of Rs 10 Lakh are taxed at 10 per cent in the hands of the share holders.  Additionally, the profits of the corporates, out of which the dividends are paid are subject to a corporate tax consequently dividends are taxed thrice.
While Government should expand the base of tax payers, the tax should be progressive, contributory and bearable.
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                                                          - Shive Mishra 









Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Indian Economy - SLow ......Slowness.......and Slowdown …?


............  RECESSION ?

A common discussion now days in all the forums, be it social gathering, political or TV debate, is the slowdown of the Indian Economy. Although all such discussions have their own opinions but the projection being done is appears very high. No doubt, Indian economy is passing through a difficult stage which needs very careful assessment and quick remedial measures by the Government. The seriousness of the matter can be understood from the fact that in Q 2 this year (TY) GDP grew by 4.5% which is the slowest during the last 6 years. In Q1 the growth was 5% which too was a warning signal. The growth last year (LY) was 5% and 7% in Q1 and Q2 respectively.  During first half of the current fiscal the growth is 4.8% as compared to 7.5% last year. There is decline in growth of 6 out of 8 core sectors which is a major area of concern. The other data released by NSO also support the gradual slowness of the economy.

·       The gross value added (GVA) growth in the manufacturing sector contracted by 1% in the second quarter of this fiscal from 6.9% expansion a year ago.
·       Farm sector GVA growth remained subdued at 2.1%, as compared to 4.9% in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal which is very sensitive from the rural employment point of view.
·       Construction sector GVA growth also declined to 3.3% from 8.5% earlier.
·       Mining sector growth was recorded at 0.1% as against 2.2% contraction LY. Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services growth slowed to 3.6% from 8.7% LY.
·       Trade, Hotel, Transport, communication and services related growth has also down to 4.8% in the second quarter from 6.9% corresponding period LY.
·       Financial, real estate and professional services growth slowed to 5.8% in the Q2 TY from 7% LY.
·       However, public administration, defence and other services recorded improvement at 11.6% rise in Q1 TY over 8.6% LY.

The major factors

It may be easily analyzed that slowdown in the Indian economy is not because of a single factor but a number of factors and their cyclic effect mentioned below

  • ·  slowdown in private consumption,
  • ·  decline in investment and export
  • ·  decline in majority of core sectors  
  • ·  Inadequate credit offtake owing
  • ·  Subdued demand in the market.
  • ·  Shyness in fresh investment 


In addition to above, there are many other factors also. A few industrial and political circles suggest that there is fear psychosis or trust deficit in the industry / trade circles owing to various actions of authorities (IT, ED and CBI) on black money and corruption cases. But the fact remains can be ignore or dilute the control over corruption and black money. The answer is no. No country in world can make long term sustainable economy by tolerating or ignoring expansion of black money and corruption.

It may be born in mind that that there is no country in the world which has not encountered such economic problems in the past. The countries like India which has high internal consumption rate are for more stable than the countries dependent on export and other things. The current slowdown is the result of so many factors, for a few known factors the impact should have been pre-assessed and planned by the Government through a proper road map. These are - Demonetization and implementation of GST.

The impact of Demonetization

While demonetization curbed the black money circulation, but it was bound to severely impact the sectors like real estate where black and white was the rule of the game for so many years. For short term it appears very painful but demonetization will help the real sector with slow but steady growth for a long period. This sector has already discounted bubble effect and prices are either down or not increasing as before. The introduction of Rs2000 currency note is still beyond the understanding of ordinary prudent person which has now started neutralizing the benefits of the demonetization. Many builders has started cash and cheque i.e. black and white. The Govt. needs to plan for systematic withdrawal of Rs2000 currency notes from the circulation without giving inconvenience to general public. It can be done without much disturbances by stopping printing, and Banks should be instructed to accept it but not to re-issue. Within a period of 6 – 7 months, this currency can be withdrawn from the circulation. Currency notes up to Rs 500 are reasonable for Indian economy which will continue to curb the cash transactions and in turn circulation of black money. 

The Impact of GST

The GST is one of the most awaited innovative projects rolled out in India which will benefit Indian Economy in years to come. However, the roll out was very painful on both IT Portal and operational fronts. The IT Infra (Portal) was not stable and capable of taking load, which was giving serious problems relating to login, data keying and submission. The application was facing frequent down and slowness. The instructions were not clear and kept on changing for months. The worst of all was very high slabs for most categories and by the time rates were rationalized by the then FM, damage was done.  The Govt. should have started from lower slab and the should have done on gradual incremental basis.

The performance of Auto Sector

The most discussed sector for slowdown is auto sector. There are visible symptoms of slow down in this sector as evidenced from the declining trends in sales of Auto Industry most Industry majors but there are several factors which include affordable and convenient CAB system. There are growing problems of parking, traffic load on the road and many times even value of toll tax. With all these issues, those who own the cars, think many times to use their cars instead they use Cab. Thanks to user friendly IT platform which make the cab availability possible at the door step without any negotiation of rate or problem in payments. Many people start using Cabs with free ride and then develop habits. Pooled cab system again made it affordable. Thanks to initiatives like “odd and even” people in big cities are being discouraged for use of personal cars. The most important people are waiting for BS VI which to be effective from 1st April 2020. It happens every time when such upgrade happens. The question is why car manufacturer was waiting till the last moment? The upgraded model (BS IV) could have been made available much before the date fixed by the Govt. to avoid avoidance of the old version by the people. There is no slowness in two-wheeler segment because of rural penetration.

The Government Response to Problem

With a view to giving quick fix, the Govt. has initiated several measures to address the problems, a few mentioned below

·    Slashed the corporate tax rate to 22 per cent from 30 per cent for existing companies, and to 15 per cent from 25 per cent for new manufacturing companies.
·   The government has initiated changes in IBC where now NBFCs with Rs 500 Cr assts may be referred to Insolvency Resolution bringing the finance companies under the ambit of insolvency.  Dewan Housing Finance Corporation (DHFL) is already in National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT). This came against the backdrop of the ongoing liquidity crisis in the non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) that has also sparked concerns about the overall stability of the financial sector.
·     Under the NBFC liquidity injection response of the government, public sector banks have been sanctioned to purchase Rs 21,580 crores of pooled assets. The National Housing Bank has also extended Rs 30,000 crore worth of credit lines to NBFCs.
·    Housing sector received maximum attention like NBFCs during these six months. The Centre had announced a Rs 25,000 crore stimulus package for the ailing real estate sector earlier this month.
·   The Govt. has announced to give impetus to revive over 1,600 stalled housing projects covering 4.58 lakh units. This will also generate considerable employment, revive demand of cement, iron and steel industries and relieve stress in other major sectors of the economy.
·      The mega merger of 10 PSU banks have been moving on with various approvals to start new structures as on April 1, 2020. The Govt. however is to ensure that these banks should not remain in the backdrop on account of merger.
·       The PSU Banks have also been capitalized with Rs70000 crore to boost the lending capacity.
·     The government plan to disinvest BPCL, Concor and SCI along with the decision to pare stakes below 51 per cent without losing PSU characteristics.
·       The Govt. spending has increased during Q2.
·       Permission of 26% FDI in digital media and
·       100% FDI in contact manufacturing.
·       RBI and Govt are on the same page for improvements in economy.

The Credit Growth and Banking Industry

In spite of number of incentives and initiatives of the Government, credit growth is not picking up. The reason could be, either banks are not working seriously or working under “fear to fail pressure” and not taking decisions to avoid any subsequent action. The branch staff of most PSU Banks, now a days are more focused on cross selling, cash incentive activities and routine work. One of very important problems of the Banking Industry is that the salary revision of Banks Employees is pending for more than 2 years and currently they are highly demotivated. Unfortunately, Government who appears employee friendly most of the times, is silent spectator to this problem. In addition to resolving salary and pension issue as early as possible, the government needs to strengthen bankers’ credit and consultative committee meetings from block, districts, state to national level and monitor the credit growth on monthly basis. The use of technology will leverage preparation of branch wise dossier for credit requirements of the service area and consolidation thereof at block, district and state level. The credit estimates may be validated and supported by block and district level functionaries on realistic basis and progress of disbursement should be monitored fortnightly. There is no doubt that there is shortage of credit. These measures will not only fill the credit gap but also create job uniformly across the country.

The goal of $5 Trillion Economy  

With the current slowdown the ambitious target of $5 trillion economy has come under heavy scrutiny especially after the dismal growth in the first half of the current fiscal. Former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor C Rangarajan has said the $5-trillion target simply out of question by 2025 at the current growth rate which is obvious. However, in my opinion he himself dented the Indian Economy a lot by not allowing interest reduction. The fact remains with the current growth rate, 9 more years would require achieving $5 trillion goal. With the current growth rate India has slipped from number 1 position to 5 in emerging economies after Vietnam, China, Egypt and Indonesia.

The most analyst and economist are on the same page that declining demand is among the most important reasons for economic slowdown, which if not tackled may lead to rescission. The purchasing power of people needs to be increased.

What is the way forward?
·       Reduction in individual tax rates (Income tax) in order to increase individuals’ liquidity. It will be an innovative idea if the govt. links the income tax exemption limit with some index of inflation, so that every year, there is automatic enhancement of limits in transparent manner without eagerly waiting for Union Budget.
·       Rationalization of GST and quick refund process.
·       Ensuring adequate credit growth.
·       Govt. should spend more on Infra projects and other capacity building.
·      The market has strong fundamentals and Govt. need to boost the morale of economy.
·     Intervening in aviation Industry to avoid cut throat competition / price war resulting into failures of airlines.
·       Scrap policy for Auto sector to replenishment regularly and to control pollution.
·       Continuous dialogue with the Industry by the Govt. to have pulse of problems and fix the problems just in time
·       Infra projects / Roads projects to be focused.
·       Pushing ware housing projects / in rural and semi urban areas.  
·    In order to increase consumption, flow of money to AGL sector / Rural area to be increased. The outlay for MANREGA may be increased which however adversely impacting agriculture activities due to non-availability of farm labors in villages. Kisan Samman amount or coverage may be increased to increase purchase power.
·  Boosting export and prostration for export-oriented industries by incentives or relaxation etc.
·    Bank credit for hospitals / health care units in rural/ semi urban areas not only for extending support to villages through Ayushman Bharat, but also to create job in rural areas.
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 https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/slow-slownessand-down-shive-prakash-mishra/







Tuesday, March 26, 2019

चलो एक बार फिर से ..... गरीबी हटाये


1971 में गरीबी हटाओ नारे की चुनाव में मिली अभूतपूर्व सफलता के बाद राहुल गांधी ने ऐलान किया है कि यदि कांग्रेस  पार्टी सरकार में आती है तो न्यूनतम आय की एक नई योजना लागू करेगी इसके अंतर्गत २० % यानी २5 करोड़ लोगो के अधिकतम रु.६००० प्रतिमाह और इस तरह साल में 72 हजार उनके खाते में डाले जाएंगे . इस तरह सरकार प्रतिवर्ष 3 हजार करोड़ रुपए खर्च करेगी और यदि  उनकी सरकार 5 वर्ष चलती है तो यह खर्च 18 लाख  करोड़ से भी अधिक आएगा.  समझना मुश्किल है कि योजना  कैसे चलेगी ? कैसे लागू की जायेगी ? और इसके लिए धन कहां से आएगा ?
वर्तमान भाजपा सरकार ने 2016- 17 के आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण में एक न्यूनतम आय योजना या  यूनिवर्सल बेसिक इनकम स्कीम का प्रस्ताव दिया था . इस पर बहस भी हुई थी . इस योजना का पाइलट मध्यप्रदेश के कुछ जिलों में किया गया था .  संभवतया जमीनी स्तर पर इसे बहुत अधिक सफल नहीं पाया गया इसलिए ये योजना पर आगे विचार नहीं किया गया . वैसे ये कोई मौलिक योजना नहीं है . यूनिवर्सल बेसिक स्कीम कई देशों में लागू की गई है और उसमें बहुत सारी खामियों की वजह से इसे बंद किया गया .
२०१६-१७ के आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण में यूनिवर्सल बेसिक इनकम को प्रस्तावित करते हुए कहा गया था  जो कार्यक्रम आजकल चलाए जा रहे हैं, भ्रष्टाचार, आवंटन में गलतियां, पात्र लोगों को वंचित करने  भ्रष्टाचार जैसी समस्याओं के कारण, ये योजना शायद एकमात्र उपाय बचा है . इस योजना के अंतर्गत प्रतिवर्ष ₹12000 बेसिक इनकम प्रत्येक परिवार को दी जाने की प्रस्तावना की गयी थी . इससे कुछ वर्षों में गरीबी कम होने की आशा की गई थी . अनुमान के अनुसार शुरुआत में २२  प्रतिशत आबादी को इसमें शामिल करने की बात की गई थी हालांकि राहुल गांधी द्वारा घोषित योजना  लगभग वैसी ही है , नयी योजना दिखाने के लिए थोड़े बहुत बहुत चेंज किए गए हैं. जैसे 22% आबादी की जगह २०% . आय  को घटाकर ₹6000 किया  गया है और इस तरीके से ₹72000 प्रति वर्ष देना प्रस्तावित किया गया है. यदयपि  चयन की प्रक्रिया, पात्रता, वित्त प्रबंधन आदि पर  विस्तार से कुछ नहीं दिया गया है पर ये सब बहुत ही मुश्किल काम है . इसके दुष्प्रभावों में राजकोषीय घाटा बढ़ना तय है , जिसके  कारण मुद्रास्फीति पड़ती है और महंगाई बढ़ती है. सबसे अधिक नकारात्मक प्रभाव यह है कि  इससे लोगों को काम करने की प्रवृत्ति कम होती है और उत्पादकता प्रभावित होती है और इस तरह से यह राष्ट्रीय उत्पादकता पर भी बहुत बुरा प्रभाव डालती है. यूनिवर्सल बेसिक स्कीम का अनुभव दुनिया के अन्य देशों में भी बहुत अच्छा नहीं रहा है क्योंकि राजनैतिक मुद्दा  बनाने के हिसाब से इसमें थोड़ी बहुत सफलता मिली जरूर पर  जनता ने ज्यादातर देशों में इसे नकार दिया.इसके पहले इस इस इस योजना को कई देशों में लागू किया गया लेकिन इन्हें सफल नहीं पाया गया और कई देशों ने योजनाओं को वापस ले लिया  जर्मनी ने कई साल के बाद योजना  को बंद कर दिया स्विट्जरलैंड और हंगरी जैसे देशों ने लागू करने के बाद भी  कर बंद किया . इस स्कीम का विस्तृत विवरण  2016-17 के  संसद में पेश किये गए  आर्थिक सर्वेक्षण रिपोर्ट के  चैप्टर ९ और पेज संख्या 173 से 195 तक में किया गया है.
नकल में अकल का सामान्यतया उपयोग नहीं किया जाता हैं, इसलिए भी और योजना के थोडा अलग दिखाने के चक्कर में राहुल गांधी ने कई महत्त्व पूर्ण चीजों को छोड़ दिया है . इस योजना से गरीबी दूर करने की नहीं वरन वोटों की खेती में पैदावार बढाने का प्रयास ज्यादा लगता है. 
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Wednesday, February 27, 2019

विपक्ष ने किया शर्मसार

आज कुछ राजनैतिक दलों ने, जिसमे कुछ का दिल पकिस्तान के काफी नजदीक हैं, ने मीटिंग कर पाकिस्तान को एक नया हथियार दे दिया है . राहुल की अगुआई में पढ़े गए एक वक्तब्य में पुलवामा के शहीदों के राजनीतिकरण के लिए सरकार की निंदा के गयी . यानी ४५ जवानों की शहादत के बाद सरकार को जैश के ठिकाने ध्वस्त नहीं करने चाहिए थे क्योंकि ऐसा न हो कि मोदी को कोई राजनैतिक फायदा हो जाये और उन्हें नुकसान.
राहुल की विद्वता पर तो किसी को कोई संदेह नहीं है, सभी जानते हैं किन्तु चन्द्र बाबू नायडू , ममता आदि को क्या कहा जाय जो आज राहुल के पिछलग्गू हो गए ? आज राहुल पाकिस्तान और हिन्दुस्तान दोनों जगह हेड लाइंस में हैं . पकिस्तान की सेना का खोया विश्वाश लौटने लगा है . हिन्दुस्तान के विपक्ष के समर्थन से उनके चेहरे पर मुस्कान आ गयी है. क्या देश को लोग वेबकूफ है जो ये नहीं समझ पाएंगे कि मोदी विरोध और राष्ट्र विरोध में क्या अंतर है ?
इसके पहले पकिस्तान द्वारा जितने भी आक्रमण / अतिक्रमण हुए , विपक्ष ने हमेशा सरकार का साथ दिया क्योकि यदि सरकार का मनोबल कमजोर होगा तो पकिस्तान के खिलाफ कोइ सख्त कदम नहीं उठाया जा सकेगा जिससे सैनिको का मनोबल टूटेगा और ये युद्ध जीता नहीं जा सकेगा .
आज सेना की जीत को विपक्ष ने लगभग हार में बदल दिया . ऐसे समय जब पूरा विश्व हिन्दुस्तान का समर्थन कर रहा है , हिन्दुस्तान का विपक्ष, हिन्दुस्तान के विरोध में उतर कर देश को शर्मसार कर रहा है .

Sunday, January 28, 2018

दर्द है ..जो रह रह कर छलकता है .....

रिजर्व बैंक के तत्कालीन गवर्नर रघुराम राजन का कार्य काल मोदी सरकार ने नहीं बढ़ाया था . कारण चाहे जो भी हों लेकिन उन्होंने इसे सहजता से नहीं लिया था और कुछ विशेष राजनैतिक पार्टियों ने ऐसा माहौल बना दिया था कि मानों देश बिना रघुराम राजन के नहीं चल सकता था और राजन सिर्फ देश सेवा के लिए ही विदेश से यहाँ आये थे और उनका कार्यकाल न बढ़ाना शायद मोदी जी का देश विरोधी काम था . स्वाभाविक है, दर्द तो होना ही था . अब जब भी मौका मिलता है वे वर्तमान सरकार की निंदा करना नहीं भूलते . अक्सर बुद्धजीवी तरह के लोग ऐसा करते हैं और उनकी यही आदत उन्हें सामान्य व्यक्ति से भी कम कर देती है . अतीत में हमने कई अमर्त्यसेन भी देखे हैं .


प्रधान मंत्री मोदी के बाद रघुराम राजन भी दावोस पहुंचे और उन्होने मोदी के भाषण सहित हिन्दुस्तान की अर्थ व्यवस्था की गहन समीक्षा कर उसके नकारात्मक पहलुओं को प्रस्तुत किया . यहाँ यह ध्यान रखना उचित है कि अब उनकी पहचान भारतीय रिजर्व बैंक के पूर्व गवर्नर की होती है न कि किसी अमेरिकन यूनिवर्सिटी के प्रोफ़ेसर की . अबकी बार उन्होंने अपने वक्तव्यों के राजनैतिक पुट भी दे दिया और मोदी ने जो लोकतान्त्रिक और विकाशशील हिंदुस्तान की झलक पेश की थी उस पर सवाल उठाये . उन्होंने मोदी के वक्तव्य " भारत में लोकतंत्र बहुरंगी आबादी और गतिशीलता देश का भाग्य तय कर रहें हैं और इसे विकाश के रस्ते पर ले जा रहे हैं ." की जमकर धाज्जिया उडाई . उन्होंने संदेह व्यक्त किया कि मोदी सरकार का काम काज लोकतान्त्रिक है ? उन्होंने कहा कि सरकार में सिर्फ कुछ लोग फैसले लेते हैं और नौकरशाहों को दरकिनार कर दिया गया है . समझा जा सकता है कि कांग्रेस और राजन का सूचना श्रोत एक ही है .


विश्व पटल पर हिन्दुस्तान की नकारात्मक छवि पेश करने से सभी को बचना चाहिए भले ही कितने ही राजनैतिक मतभेद क्यों न हों .                                                                    ******

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

The Transformation of the city


Monterey  is now Money Tray

While I was in San Francisco I visited Monterey town which is around 200 KMs from Oakland on Monterey bay in California. It has neat and clean roads and streets and quality restaurants having Spanish and Mexican and continental foods. The city earlier was having canning industry of fishes and other sea foods which has been stopped but canning street is still there and is very famous. It was earlier part of Mexico, now in US.
After closure of main industry, the city transformed in to a tourist spot. Clean beaches and roads, variety of foods and other tourists attraction viz Monterey bay aquarium, Cannery row, Fisherman’s wharf etc. are the identity of the city. The economy of the city is totally dependent on tourism which is doing good and that is the success story which we in India need to learn. We have so many places of historical importance which can attract a large number domestic and foreign tourists and can be game changer for employment generation and ultimately to our county’s economy.


Few photographs 

































Saturday, September 16, 2017

५६ वषों से लंबित सरदार सरोवर परियोजना का लोकार्पण कल

५६ वर्षों पहले भारत के प्रथम प्रधानमंत्री नेहरू ने जिस सरदार सरोवर परियोजना का १९६१ में शिलान्यास किया था, उसे देश के १५वे प्रधानमंत्री मोदी कल राष्ट्र को समर्पित करेंगे . सरदार सरोवर बांध देश का सबसे बड़ा और दुनियां का दूसरा सबसे बड़ा बांध हैं . इस बांध से बनने वाली बिजली का उपयोग म.प्र., महाराष्ट्र और गुजरात करेंगे और गुजरात की पानी की समस्या का समाधान हो सकेगा .
आपको जान कर हैरानी होगी कि इन ५६ वर्षों में नेहरू परिवार की तीन पीढ़ियों ने देश पर राज्य किया और न जाने कितनी पंचवर्षीय योजनायें आयी और गयी लेकिन बांध का काम पूरा नहीं हो सका . लेकिन क्या कहें इस मोदी नाम के व्यक्ति को जिसने इन तीन वर्षों में प्राणप्रण से काम करते हुए इस बांध के रास्ते में आने वाली बाधाओं को दूर कर, बाँध को पूर्ण करने का मार्ग प्रशस्त कर दिया . यहीं पर STATUE OF UNITY यानी सरदार बल्लभ भाई पटेल की देश की सबसे ऊंची प्रतिमा लगाई जा रही है. परियोजना पूरी करने में मोदी की कितनी भूमिका है ये अलग विषय है किन्तु परियोजनाए कितनी लम्बी लटक सकती हैं या लटकाई जा सकती हैं ,ये कोई भारत से सीखे .
अब विपक्षी दलों को ये जरूर कहना चाहिए कि ये गुजरात चुनाव को देखते हुए किया गया है .
आप क्या सोचते हैं ?

Saturday, September 9, 2017

डिज़ाइनर नेता और स्तरहीन पत्रकारिता

डिज़ाइनर नेता और स्तरहीन पत्रकारिता


गौरी लंकेश की हत्या के बाद अवार्ड वापसी गैंग एक बार फिर सक्रिय हो गयी और इस बार कई डिज़ाइनर नेता भी खुलकर मैदान में आ गए और उन्होंने आरएसएस और बेजीपी के आलावा प्रधानमंत्री मोदी को भी सीधे लपेट लिया . दूसरे दिन मुम्बई, दिल्ली और बंगलौर में कैंडिल मार्च हुआ और एक जैसी मोम् बत्तिया जैसे वे एक ही जगह बनी हों और फिल्म के किसी सीन की तरह अनुशासित निर्देशन में प्रदर्शन कारी रोते बिलखते देखने को मिले.                       गौरी जैसे पत्रकार की हत्या निंदनीय है और इसकी जाँच कर अपराधियों को सख्त से सख्त सजा दी जानी चाहिए. उ.प्र.  और बिहार में हाल ही में कई पत्रकारों की न्रशंस हत्या की गयी लेकिन अफ़सोस ! न कोई डिज़ाइनर नेता और न ही कोई मोमबत्ती धारी प्रदर्शन कारी कहीं दिखाई पड़ा . ये भेद क्यों ?


            गौरी लंकेश कर्नाटक के मुख्यमंत्री सिद्धरामैय्या की बहुत नजदीकी मित्र थी और उनके राज्य में पोश इलाके में उनकी हत्या की गयी जो बेहद दुखदायी है. जब उन्हें धमकियाँ मिल रही थी और  उनकी जान को खतरा था, तो मुख्यमंत्री ने उन्हें सुरक्षा क्यों नहीं दी ? जिस दिन उनकी हत्या हुई वे मुख्य मंत्री से मिल कर आ रही थी. बताया जाता है कि वे एक गुप्त मिशन पर थी और उनके भाई ने बताया कि ये गुप्त मिशन था कई नक्सली नेताओं को आत्म समर्पण कराना और इसलिए वे कुछ नक्सलियों के निशाने पर थी . किन्तु सिद्धरामैय्या सहित सभी ने देश में बढ़ रही असहिष्णुता और प्रधान मंत्री मोदी को इस ह्त्या का इसका जिम्मेदार बताया . गौरी को राजकीय सम्मान के साथ अंतिम विदाई दी गयी  और पुलिस ने उन्हें सलामी दी.


             ओम थानवी, रबीश कुमार और दिग्विजय सिंह जैसे लोगों ने कपडे उतार कर नागिन डांस किया. टी आर पी  को लालाइत कुछ टी वी चैनलों  ने घंटो बहस की और एक छोटी सी साप्ताहिक मैगजीन “गौरी लंकेश” जिसकी कीमत रु. १५ और खरीदार पता नहीं कितने थे, के पत्रकार को राष्ट्रीय हीरो बना दिया. जाहिर है ये मग्जीन बिना पैसे के नहीं चल सकती, इसके श्रोत क्या है ? इसका स्तेमाल एक विशेष विचारधारा जो राष्ट्र भक्तों को कठघरे में खड़ा कर सके , के प्रचार और प्रसार के लिए किया जाता था. गौरी जो वामपंथी थी, को एक बीजेपी नेता के बारे में मिथ्या समाचार प्रकाशित करने के अपराध में अभी हाल ही  में ६ महीने के जेल की सजा सुनाई गयी थी  और वे जमानत पर थीं. वामपंथियों के पास अब सिवाय आडम्बर के और कुछ नहीं बचा है. एक सजायाफ्ता पत्रकार के प्रति एक राजनैतिक दल की इतनी हमदर्दी ... कुछ तो गड़बड़ है .


                    एस आई टी ने संकेत दिए हैं कि उनकी हत्या नक्सलियों ने की हो सकती है . 

लेकिन जो लोग हिट  एंड रन करके चले गए उनका क्या किया जाय ? 

 राजनीति और पत्रकारिता कितना  नीचे गिरेगी ? क्या कोई भविष्य वाणी कर सकता है ?  

                                                                    ******